Fuel is a fundamental factor that determines the economics of any freight transport. When we talk about international routes, especially towards the European Union, every litre of diesel fuel directly affects the final cost of the service for businesses. In 2026, the market is facing a new reality: geopolitical instability, EU environmental initiatives and fluctuations in global oil prices are creating a dynamic environment where forecasting logistics costs requires in-depth analysis.
For business owners, COOs, and e-commerce companies, understanding these mechanisms is key to effective budgeting and staying competitive. After all, any fluctuation in the price of petrol and diesel in the EU is instantly reflected in the final cost of goods for consumers in Berlin, Warsaw or Paris.
High market volatility forces logistics companies such as Rapid to constantly review their tariff scales and look for ways to optimise costs. Let's take a closer look at what factors will determine business transport costs in 2026. And how exporters can prepare for the changes.
What's happening to diesel prices right now
According to the latest data Weekly Oil Prices Bulletin of the European Commission, The average price of diesel fuel in the EU in 2026 is €2,076 per litre. This is a third more than at the end of February of the same year. For comparison, diesel cost €1.59 then. A 30% increase in five weeks is not a planned market correction, but a leap.
There is a wide range of prices across the EU, from €1.21 per litre in Malta to €2.46 in the Netherlands. Among the most expensive markets are Denmark, Germany, Finland and Belgium. Austria, France, Ireland and Sweden are also above average.
These differences are important for logistics. A route through the Netherlands or Germany is a priori more expensive than the same route through Poland or Hungary.
A significant share of the final fuel price in Europe is generated by taxes. As of mid-March 2026, they amounted to 44.6% for diesel and 52.1% for petrol. That is, even if oil fell in price, the price at the pump would not fall proportionally - a significant part of the cost is fixed at the level of government fiscal policy.
Why prices soared: the impact of oil prices on logistics
The reason for the current spike is not seasonality or speculation. As of 20 March 2026, strikes on key energy facilities have pushed global oil and fuel prices up. Instability in the Middle East region directly affects the availability and cost of bunker fuel for maritime transport. This, in turn, leads to an increase in land tariffs.
Between March and April 2026, the five largest container carriers - MSC, Maersk, CMA CGM, ONE and Hapag-Lloyd - announced the introduction of emergency fuel surcharges for maritime freight. The common trigger was the situation in the Middle East and its impact on the cost and availability of bunker fuel. The momentum then spread to land and intermodal transport in Europe.
The volatility of oil prices is not a new phenomenon, but the current wave is distinguished by the speed of its transmission to tariffs. Previously, several weeks would pass between fuel price increases and changes in freight rates, but now logistics companies react much faster, often introducing emergency surcharges in real time.
How fuel price fluctuations affect delivery costs
Fuel is not just a line item in a carrier's expenses. It is a structural component of the cost of delivery that affects the final tariff through the mechanism of fuel surcharges.
The scheme is simple: the carrier sets a basic tariff for transportation and applies a surcharge on top, calculated based on current diesel prices. According to FLEX Logistics, At current retail diesel prices in Germany, the fuel surcharge for road freight transport ranges from 24 to 27% of the base tariff. If diesel prices continue to rise, this share will increase even further.
The cost of shipping continues to rise even for companies that have not changed carriers or service conditions. The contracts may look unchanged, but the bills are getting more expensive. And the reason is often not the base rate, but rather fuel surcharges and additional fees that apply to each shipment.
For e-commerce companies, manufacturers and distributors that regularly ship goods to Europe, this means one thing: even without changes in volumes and routes, logistics costs are rising. By April, the budget drawn up in January no longer reflects reality.
Shipping costs to Europe: what the final price is formed from
Cost of international transport - is not only fuel, although it is currently the most significant share. The full cost structure includes several elements:
- The first is the basic freight rate itself. It depends on the direction, distance, type of vehicle and market congestion at a particular moment.
- The second is the fuel surcharge, which is tied to the current diesel price index and can vary significantly from week to week.
- The third is the cost of travelling on toll roads: in most EU countries, trucks pay for every kilometre of motorway, and this fee is also regularly reviewed.
- The fourth is cargo insurance, document management, and customs clearance at border crossings.
For. Ukraine-EU routes Another factor is added: the border crossing, which can take from several hours to several days depending on the workload of the border crossing. Simply waiting at the border means driver time, parking costs and potential delivery delays.
What businesses can do right now
The volatility of fuel prices in Europe is not a reason to panic, but a reason to take action.
The first step is audit of contracts with carriers. Most contracts contain formulas for calculating fuel surcharges. It is important to understand which index the surcharge is linked to in your particular contract and how it is recalculated when prices change. Some contracts allow you to fix the tariff for a certain period - this is worth discussing with your partner at the time of negotiation, before the market stabilises.
The second is shipment planning. Consolidating shipments, i.e. combining several small shipments into one, is one of the easiest ways to reduce the impact of fuel surcharges on delivery costs. The surcharge is calculated from the base tariff, and the more efficient the vehicle is used, the lower the proportion of the surcharge per unit of goods.
The third is the choice of route. If your cargo requires a variety of routes, you should regularly compare the cost of petrol and diesel in the countries of transit. A route through Poland and the Czech Republic may be cheaper than a route through Austria and Switzerland - not only in terms of fuel, but also in terms of road tolls.
The fourth is partnership with an experienced carrier. Companies that have been operating on the Ukraine-EU routes for a long time have established route optimisation schemes, know the specifics of each border and can quickly adapt to market changes. Rapid, for example, is one of the players specialising in such routes and focusing on long-term customer relationships.
Forecast: what's next
According to the report IRU, According to the European Central Bank, inflation in the eurozone is forecast to rise from 1.9% to 2.6% in 2026. And the fuel component is one of the factors behind this pressure. With geopolitical tensions persisting, diesel prices are unlikely to fall significantly in the short term.
For businesses, this means that fuel prices that would have seemed outrageous a year ago are gradually becoming the new normal. Those who adapt to this reality - by revising budgets, optimising supply chains and choosing reliable logistics partners - will have an advantage over competitors who continue to operate under the old calculations.
The price of logistics services in 2026 is a mirror of the global energy market. And it is better to look at it with an understanding of what is reflected in it.
